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The market flipped over the past 7 days due to the Israel/Palestine conflict , suspension by Israel at the Tamar Field gas pipeline disrupting flows into Egypt who are a key exporter to Europe and a ‘leaky’ Baltic pipeline (investigation into potential sabotage).
We are back into the area of force majeure as it stands with regards to the conflict and how much it will escalate/go on for/effects on market. In the worst case the increases in the short term should not be as severe as we saw last year. This is because storage going into this Winter is far more robust and plentiful.
However, whilst the market increased over Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, yesterday there was a levelling off where the curve corrected downward after what seems to have been ‘an overreaction to global events earlier this week’. The LNG outlook is also positive with 6 vessels due to arrive to the UK by the 22nd October. Oil markets followed a similar trend posting losses from the steep gains earlier this week.
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